Three games to watch - 31 October and 1 November 2026

Arsenal at Anfield with the best defence in the league, Manchester United at Stamford Bridge in a six-game winless run, and a Bournemouth side that has just won 3-0 at Old Trafford. Three verdicts this weekend, all results, all between 1.85 and 2.25, and the guide says below why there is no goals bet this week. Then last week’s six verdicts graded, with the part of the record we are least proud of.

The weekend at a glance

All times Europe/Sofia. Clocks changed on 25 October, so Sofia is now UTC+2.

Date	Sofia kickoff	Game	Our verdict	What we are watching
Saturday 31 October	14:30	Chelsea vs Man United	Chelsea to win at 1.85	United winless in six and getting worse; which Chelsea turns up.
Saturday 31 October	17:00	Bournemouth vs Leeds	Bournemouth to win at 2.20	Three 3-0 wins in a fortnight against a Leeds side that draws.
Sunday 1 November	18:30	Liverpool vs Arsenal	Arsenal to win at 2.25	Our featured game. Five conceded in eight against a defence that has leaked three a game.

Also this weekend: Man City-Brighton (Saturday 17:00), Tottenham-Crystal Palace (Saturday 19:30), Aston Villa-Fulham (Saturday 22:00), Milan-Inter (Saturday 21:45), Barcelona-Alaves (Saturday 22:00), Racing Santander-Real Madrid (Sunday 17:15), Athletic Club-Real Sociedad (Sunday 22:00) and Newcastle-Everton on Monday night. Fixtures and kickoffs from the live schedule, checked on 26 October.

What we are watching

Chelsea vs Man United, Saturday

United have gone 1-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-4, 0-3 in their last six, four goals scored and twelve conceded, and the last three results are the kind that end a manager’s week. Chelsea are fourth but erratic, 5-1 against Bournemouth one week and 0-2 at home to Tottenham the next. We are backing the home win at 1.85 because United’s last three results were not in the price when it was set. The trap is Chelsea’s own blanks; a flat Chelsea gives United the draw. Full preview.

Bournemouth vs Leeds, Saturday

Bournemouth have scored ten and conceded three at home this season and have just put three past Manchester United and three past Milan. Leeds have drawn four of six and scored three goals in their last five games other than the 4-1 against Newcastle. We are backing Bournemouth at 2.20. The trap is the draw at 3.40: Leeds are built for a 1-1 and the last two meetings were both 2-2. Full preview.

Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday, featured

Arsenal have conceded five in eight league games and are second with seven wins. Liverpool have conceded three in three of their last five in all competitions and have drawn three of seven in the league. We are backing Arsenal at 2.25, a 44% price, and the edge we see is the Liverpool defence of the last three weeks rather than anything in the market’s numbers. The trap is Anfield itself: Arsenal have not won a league game there since 2012. Full preview.

Why three results and no goals bet

Because the goals prices this weekend were either short or unsupported. Over 2.5 in Chelsea-United is 1.57, and United have scored four in six. Over 2.5 in Bournemouth-Leeds is 1.80, and Leeds have gone under in four of six. Over 2.5 at Anfield is 1.80 and is the version of the game that favours Liverpool, which is the opposite of our pick. The unders are all below evens, which is the no-refund-on-a-late-goal shape we stopped taking after the Tottenham result. Three results between 1.85 and 2.25 is the week the market gave us.

Milan vs Inter, Saturday, not a bet yet

The derby is the game of the weekend in Italy and we are not previewing it, for one reason: no bookmaker we check had a price posted on 26 October, and we do not publish a verdict without an observed price. For the record, the prediction markets have it as a near coin flip, Milan have won four of the last six derbies, and four of those six went under 2.5. If a price appears before Friday we will add a preview and say so here.

Last week, fully graded

Six wins from six, +2.48 units. Read the last column before celebrating.

Published selection	Final score	Grade	What happened
Both teams to score at 1.72	Como 4-1 Man United	Won	United’s only goal came in the 90th minute, at 4-0 down.
Aston Villa to win at 1.22	Aston Villa 3-1 Viking	Won	3-0 by the 62nd minute. Never in doubt.
Arsenal to win at 1.40	Arsenal 2-0 Everton	Won	Goals on 7 and 68, 18 shots to 8.
Atletico Madrid to win at 1.28	Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo	Won	One goal on 48, then eleven shots off target.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50	Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid	Won	The third goal came on 87. Three minutes from a loss.
Inter to win at 1.36	Inter 2-1 Fiorentina	Won	Fiorentina led from 65 to 90. Two Inter goals in injury time.

Three of the six were decided in the 87th minute or later. That is the same coin that landed against us when Tottenham equalised in the 90th two weeks ago, and a 6-0 week built on it is logged as a good week with a lucky middle, not as evidence of anything. Four of the six prices were between 1.22 and 1.40, which is shorter than we normally go; those four wins added 0.86 units between them and one loss at any of them would have cost a full unit. This weekend’s three are all between 1.85 and 2.25, which is where our record has been built.

The ledger stands at 25 won, 15 lost and 2 void, +2.49 units, on the track record.

How to follow along

Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost, and a source. Losing previews are never deleted and a bet is never changed after kickoff.

The track record is updated first.
The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below.
The RSS feed publishes each new preview the moment it goes live.

Read the price before making a decision

Three individual selections, not an accumulator. All three prices were observed five or six days before kickoff and will move with team news. Use the odds converter to see what each price implies, and recheck on the day.

This is the dated guide for 31 October and 1 November 2026. For later weeks, use the current previews.