Inter vs Fiorentina

Inter host Fiorentina in the Sunday lunchtime slot at San Siro. Inter went to Bologna last weekend and won 3-1 with room to spare; Fiorentina lost 3-1 at home to Como and looked short of ideas against a side that pressed them. The market has Inter at 71 percent and the gap between the two teams right now justifies it.

The case for the tip

This is the strongest side in Italy at home against a team that just conceded three to Como. Inter’s front two have been sharp, the midfield is controlling games, and the early kickoff does not change the fact that San Siro against a side in transition is where Inter collect points. Fiorentina’s away form has been erratic and their defensive shape without the ball was exposed last weekend. Inter to win is the clear read.

The trap to avoid

Inter minus 1.5 at around 1.90. A two-goal margin is plausible, but Fiorentina are a side that can nick one, and the lunchtime kickoff after a midweek European game is exactly when a 2-1 happens. The win covers you; the handicap asks you to be right twice.

Verdict

Inter to win at 1.36. One unit.