Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo

Atletico host newly promoted Deportivo at the Metropolitano on Saturday night. Simeone’s side ground out a 1-0 at Espanyol last weekend, the kind of result that says nothing about style and everything about control. Deportivo drew 1-1 at home to Levante and have the look of a side still finding out what top-flight away days feel like. Atletico are priced at 77 percent and the number is fair.

The case for the tip

Atletico at home to a promoted side is a fixture with a long memory, and the memory is one-sided. The Metropolitano has been close to a fortress under Simeone and the midweek Champions League trip to Stuttgart will have been managed with this game in mind. Deportivo’s goal threat is modest and their defensive structure has not yet been tested by a front line of this quality. The home win is the overwhelmingly likely outcome.

The trap to avoid

Over 2.5 goals. Atletico wins against this kind of opponent are often 2-0 or 1-0, not 4-1. The style that makes the win so likely is the same style that keeps the goal count low. Back the result, not the spectacle.

Verdict

Atletico Madrid to win at 1.28. One unit.