Arsenal vs Everton

Arsenal come home to the Emirates after a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest that was more controlled than the scoreline suggests. Everton lost 2-0 at home to Chelsea and have not looked like a side that travels well this autumn. The market makes Arsenal a 69 percent favourite, which is about right for a team that has made a habit of winning these fixtures without drama.

The case for the tip

Arsenal at home against a mid-table side is the most reliable result in the division. They do not need to be brilliant; they need to be patient, and this is a team built for patience. Everton’s attack has gone quiet, their last outing produced no goal against Chelsea, and a trip to north London is not where droughts end. Three points for the home side is the expected outcome by a wide margin.

The trap to avoid

Arsenal to win to nil at around 2.00. It has been the better-value play in some of these games, but Everton do carry a set-piece threat and one corner is all it takes to turn a correct read into a lost bet. Keep it plain: the win is the pick, the clean sheet is a bonus you do not pay for.

Verdict

Arsenal to win at 1.40. One unit.