Aston Villa vs Viking

Aston Villa host Viking at Villa Park a week after taking Fenerbahce apart 6-0 and four days after winning 1-0 at Newcastle. The market has Villa at around 79 percent to win and that is, if anything, a touch generous to the visitors. Viking are a decent Norwegian side having a good season at home; away at a Premier League club in form, this is the fixture the league phase was built to produce.

The case for the tip

Villa’s shape under Emery does not loosen for the smaller opponents, which is why these games tend to be won by two or three rather than scrambled by one. Six against Fenerbahce, a clean sheet at St James’ Park, and a squad deep enough to rotate without dropping the level. Viking’s European away record is thin and their defence has not faced a front line of this speed. A home win is the base case and the price reflects it.

The trap to avoid

Chasing the handicap. Villa minus 1.5 at around 1.65 is tempting after the Fenerbahce scoreline, but Emery teams manage games once they are two up and a late consolation goal is the classic way a comfortable night turns into a losing ticket. We are here to be right, not to be clever. Take the win.

Verdict

Aston Villa to win at 1.22. One unit.