Crystal Palace vs Ipswich

Saturday afternoon at Selhurst Park brings together the two most goal-involved sides in the early table, for opposite reasons. Palace have been in a 1-4, a 3-2 and a 4-goal thriller at Fulham where they scored three; Ipswich have shipped seven in two away trips and still managed two of their own at Old Trafford.

The case for the tip

Every Palace league match this season has cleared 2.5 goals, and it is not an accident of fixtures: Glasner’s side attacks with full-backs and defends in transition, which means their matches are open at both ends whoever the opponent. Ipswich’s defence has conceded two or more in every match, and they will not park the bus - they did not against Manchester United, they did not against Liverpool, and they came away with 14 shots and 5 on target in a 0-2 defeat. Two teams whose default state is an exchange of chances, priced at 1.72 for three goals. That is a fair price for a probability the form table puts closer to 65 percent.

The trap to avoid

The Ipswich clean-sheet-against scenario has already burned this ledger once. If Palace score early and Ipswich crumble, you get 3-0 and the over lands anyway - the danger is the opposite: a tight, nervous 1-0 where Palace protect a lead and Ipswich cannot finish. Ipswich have generated shots in every match and scored in two of three; the finishing dip against Liverpool was Alisson, not a pattern. We back the pattern.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. The most open side in the division against the most porous - the market is pricing one of them as if they might change.