Matchweek guide · 28 September 2026
Two Nations League games to watch - 28 and 29 September 2026
Matchday 2 closes the first half of the international window. We have picked two games from it: France in Brussels without Mbappe on Monday, and Spain’s first home match as world champions on Tuesday. Below is what we are watching in each, then the full grading of our four matchday 1 verdicts, then the answer to the question everyone is asking, which is when club football comes back.
This week at a glance
All times Europe/Sofia, UTC+3. Both games kick off at 20:45 local time.
| Date | Sofia kickoff | Game | Our verdict | What we are watching |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 28 September | 21:45 | Belgium vs France | Belgium or draw at 1.91 | A France side without Mbappe, Saliba and Konate, priced as if they were playing. |
| Tuesday 29 September | 21:45 | Spain vs Croatia | Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 | Our featured game. How the goals land, not whether Spain win. |
The other matchday 2 games in League A were Serbia 1-2 Netherlands, Germany 0-1 Greece, Denmark 2-0 Wales and Norway 1-2 Portugal on Sunday, with Turkey v Italy also on Monday and Czechia v England on Tuesday. Fixtures from UEFA’s matchday 2 preview, checked on 28 September.
What we are watching
Belgium vs France, Monday
France have beaten Belgium five times in a row and the market prices them at 1.90 to make it six. Our view is that the price belongs to a team that is not travelling. Mbappe is out, and so is the first-choice centre-back pairing of Saliba and Konate. France beat Turkey 1-0 on Friday and lost the expected-goals count doing it.
Belgium won 2-0 in Rome and could have had four by half-time. De Bruyne, Godts and Lukebakio are in form. We are backing Belgium or draw, which pays on anything except a French win.
Watch the French team sheet first. If any of the three absentees is fit, the case is weaker. Then watch the first fifteen minutes: if Belgium press the makeshift French defence, the game is on our terms. If they sit deep and let France keep the ball, it is not. Full preview.
Spain vs Croatia, Tuesday, featured
Spain at 1.20 is a deposit, not a bet. The question is how the goals land. Spain created more than three expected goals at Wembley and scored three. Croatia scored twice in Prague and are playing more openly under Bilic. We are backing three goals or more.
Watch the Spanish starting eleven. This is the second game in four days, and a rotated front three is the reason to pass. Then watch the first Croatian attack: if Bilic’s side is going forward rather than defending a scoreline, the third goal comes from one of the two ends. Full preview.
Matchday 1: all four verdicts graded
Two wins, two losses at the break so far, and the honest version is that one win came in the 92nd minute and the other came for the wrong reason.
| Published selection | Final score | Grade | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score at 1.62 | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | Won | Germany led from the 32nd minute. Gakpo equalised in the 92nd. |
| Portugal -1.5 at 1.78 | Portugal 1-0 Wales | Lost | 22 shots, one goal. The exact trap the preview named. |
| Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 | Italy 0-2 Belgium | Won | Two goals is under the line. But the thesis was Italy control, and Italy were booed off. |
| Spain draw no bet at 1.75 | England 2-3 Spain | Won | Spain came from 2-1 down. Kane missed a penalty at 2-1. |
Matchday 1 returned +1.42 units at one unit per selection. The ledger is 14 won, 11 lost and 2 void, and back in profit for the first time since the club weekend of 18-20 September. The Italy note is worth reading in full on the track record: a win with a wrong thesis is logged as a win with a wrong thesis, because the alternative is pretending we were right.
Handicaps are now 0 from 3 on this site. If the pattern holds through October we will say so and stop backing margins for a while.
When does club football come back?
Not this weekend. The window runs to 6 October, with Nations League matchdays 3 and 4 on 1-3 and 4-6 October. The Premier League resumes on Saturday 10 October, La Liga on Friday 9 October, and the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October. Our next club previews will publish in the week of 5 October.
How to follow along
Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost, and a source. Losing previews are never deleted and a bet is never changed after kickoff.
- The track record is updated first. If a result is not there, it has not been graded yet.
- The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below.
- The RSS feed publishes each new preview the moment it goes live.
Read the price before making a decision
These are two individual editorial selections, not a double. A double-chance bet at 1.91 loses to one result and pays on two, and an Over 2.5 at 1.53 needs the third goal to actually arrive. Use the odds converter to see what each price implies before deciding whether you agree with our reading.
This is the dated guide for 28 and 29 September 2026. For later weeks, use the current previews.