Matchweek guide · 22 September 2026
Four Nations League games to watch - 24 to 26 September 2026
The club season stops for a week and the Nations League starts. Matchday 1 gives us the world champions at Wembley, the oldest rivalry in European football in Amsterdam, the holders beginning their defence in Lisbon and Italy at home in Rome. We have published a verdict on each. This guide explains what we are watching in the four games and why, so you can follow the reasoning and not just the result.
The break at a glance
All times below are Europe/Sofia, UTC+3 on these dates. Every game kicks off at 20:45 local time in Western Europe.
| Date | Sofia kickoff | Game | Our verdict | What we are watching |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 24 September | 21:45 | Netherlands vs Germany | Both teams to score at 1.62 | Two defences that have not kept the ball out all year. |
| Thursday 24 September | 21:45 | Portugal vs Wales | Portugal -1.5 at 1.78 | Whether the holders press for a second goal or settle for one. |
| Friday 25 September | 21:45 | Italy vs Belgium | Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 | Italy’s 1-0 habit against Belgium’s open attack. |
| Saturday 26 September | 21:45 | England vs Spain | Spain draw no bet at 1.75 | Our featured game. An England side missing three starters against the champions. |
Fixture list from UEFA’s official matchday preview, checked on 22 September.
What we are watching, game by game
Netherlands vs Germany, Thursday
The rivalry is the story for most people. For us the story is two defences. The Netherlands have not kept a clean sheet in any match this calendar year. Germany have kept one in eight games in 2026. Six of the last seven meetings have seen both sides score, including a 2-2 the last time they met in Amsterdam.
Watch the first twenty minutes. If the Dutch, under a new coach in his first competitive game, sit off and let Germany have the ball, the game can go quiet and a 1-0 either way kills our bet. If both sides press the way they did in the summer, the goals come. Full preview.
Portugal vs Wales, Thursday
Portugal will win. The market says so at 1.27 and we agree. The question we are asking is by how much. Wales have drawn 1-1 four times in their last five, which means they concede in nearly every game but rarely collapse.
Watch what Portugal do at 1-0. The holders can be held when they do not need to press, as a 0-0 with Colombia and a 1-1 with DR Congo showed in the summer. If they keep attacking after the first goal, the two-goal margin arrives. If they manage the game, our handicap loses to a comfortable but narrow win. Full preview.
Italy vs Belgium, Friday
Italy’s last four competitive results were 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Belgium’s were 1-2 against Spain, 4-1 against the USA and 3-2 against Senegal. One team plays for a single goal and the other plays for four. We are backing the game to be played on Italy’s terms at the Olimpico.
Watch who scores first. If Italy lead, they close the game and the Under lands. If Belgium score first, Italy have to open up and the whole calculation changes. This is our only pick at odds above evens this week, and it is the one where the first goal matters most. Full preview.
England vs Spain, Saturday, featured
The champions at Wembley. The market has it close to a coin flip, 2.62 for England and 2.55 for Spain, and we think that flatters the home side. Cole Palmer, Declan Rice and Marcus Rashford have all withdrawn. Spain arrive with the core that won the tournament in July.
Watch the midfield. Without Rice, England’s platform against a Spain side that keeps the ball for long spells is the weakest part of the team. Our bet is Spain draw no bet: Spain win pays, a draw refunds, only an England win loses. If England start fast and Wembley gets loud, that is the scenario we are wrong. Full preview.
What last weekend taught us
Our four club previews for 18-20 September returned no wins, three losses and one void. At one unit per selection, that is -3.00 units, our worst weekend so far, and it took the public record negative for the first time.
| Published selection | Final score | Grade | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals at 2.19 | Brentford 3-0 Chelsea | Lost | Three goals, one short, and the third came in the 90th minute. |
| Arsenal to win at 1.70 | Brighton 3-0 Arsenal | Lost | Arsenal had 57% of the ball and one shot on target. |
| Roma draw no bet at 1.91 | Roma 2-2 Inter | Void | Roma led 2-0 after 37 minutes and let it go. Stake returned. |
| Real Madrid to win at 1.90 | Atletico 2-1 Real Madrid | Lost | A red card on 52 minutes, two goals conceded in the next seven. |
The honest reading is that two of the three losses were the bet being wrong, not unlucky. We priced Arsenal on reputation and asked Brentford-Chelsea for four goals on the strength of two 2-2 draws that the preview itself said were not a pattern. The derby was the one that turned on a single incident, which the preview named as the main risk. All four sit on the track record with the original analysis, and the ledger is now 11 won, 10 lost and 2 void.
How to follow along
Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost and a source. We do not delete losing previews or quietly change a bet after kickoff.
Three ways to keep up:
- The track record is updated first. If a result is not there yet, it has not been graded.
- The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below, with the result on each card.
- The RSS feed publishes every new preview the moment it goes live, if you use a feed reader.
Read the price before making a decision
These four previews are individual editorial selections, not an accumulator. A short price can lose, a handicap can lose to a comfortable win and a draw-no-bet only refunds on a draw. Use the odds converter to see what each price implies before deciding whether you agree with our reading.
This is the dated guide for 24-26 September 2026. For later weeks, use the current previews.