Matchweek guide · 30 September 2026
Nations League matchday 3 - what we are watching, 1 to 3 October 2026
Matchday 3 runs Thursday to Saturday and closes with two Group A3 games on Saturday night. We have one verdict this round, on France against Italy in Paris, and we explain below why it is one and not two. Then the grading of both matchday 2 selections, honestly, and the date club football returns.
The round at a glance
All times Europe/Sofia, UTC+3. Games kick off at 20:45 local time in Western Europe unless stated.
| Date | Sofia kickoff | Game | Our verdict | What we are watching |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 1 October | 21:45 | Germany vs Serbia | No verdict | Germany have not won yet. Serbia have lost twice at home. |
| Thursday 1 October | 21:45 | Greece vs Netherlands | No verdict | Greece beat Germany. The Dutch found a striker in Belgrade. |
| Thursday 1 October | 21:45 | Denmark vs Portugal | No verdict | The holders after a 1-0 that should have been three. |
| Thursday 1 October | 21:45 | Wales vs Norway | No verdict | Two sides on nil points in Group A4. |
| Friday 2 October | 21:45 | Belgium vs Turkey | No verdict | Belgium after an 88th-minute heartbreak in Brussels. |
| Friday 2 October | 21:45 | France vs Italy | Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 | Our featured game. Two 1-0 wins for France, and how Italy score against a real defence. |
| Saturday 3 October | 19:00 | Croatia vs England | No verdict yet | Behind closed doors in Rijeka. See below. |
| Saturday 3 October | 21:45 | Spain vs Czechia | No verdict | Spain unbeaten in 40 and at home again. |
Fixtures from UEFA’s matchday 3 preview, checked on 30 September.
Why one verdict and not two
Croatia against England is the game we wanted to preview. It is played behind closed doors in an 8,000-seat stadium after a UEFA sanction, which changes the home advantage in a way the market may not price properly, and it is Modric’s last game against England.
We did not publish a verdict because at the time of writing we could not find a settled market price for it that we would be willing to stand behind. Our rule is that every published price is one we actually observed, and a preview without an honest price is a preview we do not publish. If the price is there on Friday, the preview goes up on Friday.
What we are watching in France-Italy
France have scored once in each of Zidane’s two games and could have drawn both. Italy scored none in Rome and four in Bursa, and the four came against a Turkish side that had already given up. Our reading is that the versions of these two teams currently on the pitch produce two goals or fewer more often than three or more. The head-to-head record says the opposite, with 3-1 in both of the last two meetings, and that is the trap. Watch whether Mbappe is named, and watch how Italy attack when France have the ball for long spells. Full preview.
Matchday 2: both verdicts graded
One win, one loss, and the loss came in the 88th minute.
| Published selection | Final score | Grade | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium or draw at 1.91 | Belgium 0-1 France | Lost | Goalless until Olise ran from his own half in the 88th minute. |
| Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 | Spain 4-1 Croatia | Won | Three goals inside 31 minutes. Settled before half-time. |
The Belgium note is worth reading. We backed the side without the star for the second time in the window, and lost for the second time. Absences move the price less than they move the result, and we have now paid for that lesson twice. The ledger stands at 15 won, 12 lost and 2 void, +0.25 units, on the track record.
When does club football come back?
Matchday 4 runs 4 to 6 October and closes the window. La Liga returns on Friday 9 October, the Premier League on Saturday 10 October with Liverpool against Manchester City on the Sunday, and the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October. Our next club previews publish in the week of 5 October.
How to follow along
Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost, and a source. Losing previews are never deleted and a bet is never changed after kickoff.
- The track record is updated first.
- The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below.
- The RSS feed publishes each new preview the moment it goes live.
Read the price before making a decision
An Under 2.5 at 1.90 is a bet on the game staying closed for ninety minutes, and it loses to a late third goal as surely as to a 4-1. Use the odds converter to see what the price implies before deciding whether you agree with our reading.
This is the dated guide for 1 to 3 October 2026. For later weeks, use the current previews.