Matchweek guide · 9 November 2026
Two games to watch - 12 to 17 November 2026
The club season pauses and the Nations League group phase finishes: two matchdays, Thursday to Tuesday, sixteen League A games. We are previewing two of them. The reason is in the prices, not the football: six days out, before squads have trained, one book has posted result prices and almost nobody has posted anything else, so the slate is short and the guide says what we looked at and passed. Then last week graded, five wins and one loss that we had warned ourselves about.
The window at a glance
All times Europe/Sofia, UTC+2.
| Date | Sofia kickoff | Game | Our verdict | What we are watching |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday 13 November | 21:45 | Netherlands vs Greece | Greece or draw at 2.30 | First against second, both unbeaten, a draw suits both. |
| Sunday 15 November | 21:45 | Spain vs England | England or draw at 2.20 | Our featured game. Spain need a draw, England need a win. |
The rest of League A, all 21:45 Sofia unless marked: Thursday 12 November, Italy-France, England-Croatia, Czechia-Spain, and Turkiye-Belgium at 19:00. Friday 13 November, Serbia-Germany. Saturday 14 November, Portugal-Denmark, and Norway-Wales at 19:00. Sunday 15 November, Belgium-Italy and France-Turkiye. Monday 16 November, Germany-Netherlands and Greece-Serbia. Tuesday 17 November, Denmark-Norway and Wales-Portugal. Fixtures and kickoffs from the UEFA schedule, checked on 9 November.
What we are watching
Netherlands vs Greece, Friday
Both on eight points, both unbeaten, Germany three behind. Greece have conceded three in four group games and kept Germany out twice; the Netherlands have drawn two of four and conceded six in their last five. A draw keeps both clear of Germany with one game left, which is why we are backing Greece not to lose at 2.30 rather than the Netherlands at 1.44. The trap is Amsterdam: the Dutch scored twice in Athens and can do it again at home. Full preview.
Spain vs England, Sunday, featured
If Thursday goes to form, Spain arrive needing a draw to finish first and England arrive needing a two-goal win to overtake them. Spain have won eleven in a row but conceded in most of their group games; England have scored fourteen in four. We are backing England or draw at 2.20. The trap is the streak, and the second trap is that a game between two qualified sides can turn into a friendly with fringe players. Full preview.
What we looked at and passed
Italy-France on Thursday: Italy need the points and France need one, which is a draw-shaped game, but Italy or draw prices at about 1.90 and we do not take under-evens bets that die to a late goal; France at 1.71 is below where our record is built. Belgium-Italy on Sunday: Belgium at 2.18 looked like the bet until we worked through Thursday. If France beat Italy and Belgium beat Turkiye, Belgium go into Sunday needing only a draw and a home win becomes less likely, not more. England-Croatia and Czechia-Spain: favourites at 1.30 and 1.50. Germany-Netherlands on Monday: by then the Dutch are probably through and Germany probably are not, and a dead rubber at 1.80 is not a bet. Portugal-Denmark: no price we could find on 9 November. Prices for both verdicts are derived from one book’s result board and the previews say so; we will note the posted double-chance lines in the grading.
Last week, fully graded
Five wins and one loss, +0.89 units.
| Published selection | Final score | Grade | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona to win at 1.28 | Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa | Won | Featured. Goals on 7, 52 and 64; Villa had one shot on target. |
| Both teams to score at 1.65 | Man United 3-2 Roma | Won | Roma 2-0 up by 17, United scored on 58 and the bet was settled. |
| Real Madrid to win at 1.28 | AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid | Won | Behind twice, winner in the 90th minute. A late one. |
| Real Madrid to win at 1.30 | Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid | Won | Three goals, 72% of the ball, Valencia one shot on target. |
| Roma to win at 1.38 | Roma 3-0 Sassuolo | Won | Two goals in four minutes before the half hour. |
| Arsenal -1.5 at 1.60 | Arsenal 1-0 Hull | Lost | Won by one. The handicap needed two and loses in full. |
The Arsenal loss is the one to read. In October we wrote, in the Villa-Viking preview, that the handicap is the trap against a side that sits in; we then took a handicap against a side that sits in, Arsenal did everything but score twice, and the bet lost in full while a straight win at 1.20 would have landed. The reading of the match was right and the market was wrong, which on the ledger is the same as being wrong. Handicaps come off the list again, and this time it is written in the guide rather than in a preview nobody re-reads.
The ledger stands at 33 won, 16 lost and 2 void, +6.68 units, on the track record.
How to follow along
Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost, and a source. Losing previews are never deleted and a bet is never changed after kickoff.
- The track record is updated first.
- The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below.
- The RSS feed publishes each new preview the moment it goes live.
Read the price before making a decision
Two individual selections, not a double. Both prices are derived from result boards published on 9 November and the posted double-chance lines will differ; recheck on the day and use the odds converter to see what each price implies.
This is the dated guide for 12 to 17 November 2026. Club football returns on 21 November. For later weeks, use the current previews.