Matchweek guide · 3 October 2026
Premier League is back - three games to watch, 10 to 12 October 2026
The international window ends on 6 October and the Premier League returns on Saturday 10 October with a full round. We have three verdicts for it, headed by the game of the autumn at Anfield on Sunday. Below is what we are watching in each, then the final grading of the international break, which closed in profit.
The weekend at a glance
All times Europe/Sofia, UTC+3.
| Date | Sofia kickoff | Game | Our verdict | What we are watching |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday 10 October | 17:00 | Aston Villa vs Brentford | Both teams to score at 1.52 | A defence conceding nearly two a game against an attack scoring nearly two. |
| Saturday 10 October | 19:30 | Man United vs Tottenham | Both teams to score - No at 2.30 | Tottenham have scored twice all season. We are backing that to continue. |
| Sunday 11 October | 18:30 | Liverpool vs Man City | Man City draw no bet at 1.75 | Our featured game. Five wins from five against one defeat in 22 home meetings. |
The rest of the round: Arsenal-Leeds (Saturday 14:30), Chelsea-Bournemouth, Ipswich-Fulham and Sunderland-Brighton (all Saturday 17:00), Crystal Palace-Forest and Hull-Everton (Sunday 16:00), and Coventry-Newcastle on Monday night. Fixtures and kickoffs from the live schedule, checked on 3 October.
What we are watching
Aston Villa vs Brentford, Saturday
Villa have conceded nine in five. Brentford have scored nine in their last five and both teams scored in four of them. The trap is the head-to-head: the last four meetings went under 2.5 and Villa’s home games against Brentford have been tight. Watch whether Villa’s attack, four goals in five, three of them at Tottenham, shows up. If Villa score once, the bet is most of the way home. Full preview.
Man United vs Tottenham, Saturday
Two goals in five games is the whole case. Tottenham have blanked in most of their matches this season, and both-teams-to-score-no pays if either side fails to score. The trap is United’s defence, eight conceded in five, which is capable of giving anyone a goal. Watch the Spurs front line on the team sheet; a change there is De Zerbi admitting what the numbers say. Full preview.
Liverpool vs Man City, Sunday, featured
The market cannot separate them. City have won five from five and beat Liverpool 4-0 in April. Liverpool are unbeaten but have drawn three of five. We are backing City draw no bet, which refunds on a draw and loses only to a Liverpool win. The trap is Anfield, one defeat in twenty-two home league meetings. Watch the first twenty minutes: if Liverpool press and the crowd is in it, the home record is live. Full preview.
The international break, fully graded
Seven verdicts over three matchdays: four won, three lost, +1.68 units.
| Published selection | Final score | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score at 1.62 | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | Won, in the 92nd minute |
| Portugal -1.5 at 1.78 | Portugal 1-0 Wales | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 | Italy 0-2 Belgium | Won, for the wrong reason |
| Spain draw no bet at 1.75 | England 2-3 Spain | Won |
| Belgium or draw at 1.91 | Belgium 0-1 France | Lost, in the 88th minute |
| Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 | Spain 4-1 Croatia | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 | France 1-1 Italy | Won |
Three things from the break, written down so we hold ourselves to them. Featured picks won three in a row after losing two in a row; that is variance, not a system, and it will turn again. Handicaps are 0 from 3 on the site, so there is none in this weekend’s slate. And backing the side missing its star lost twice; this weekend’s slate backs form, not absences.
The ledger stands at 16 won, 12 lost and 2 void, +1.15 units, on the track record.
How to follow along
Every verdict is graded the morning after the game, with the score, the reason it won or lost, and a source. Losing previews are never deleted and a bet is never changed after kickoff.
- The track record is updated first.
- The previews page shows upcoming games at the top and graded ones below.
- The RSS feed publishes each new preview the moment it goes live.
Read the price before making a decision
Three individual selections, not a treble. Two of the three prices are derived from observed markets a week out and will move once team news lands. Use the odds converter to see what each price implies, and recheck on the day.
This is the dated guide for 10 to 12 October 2026. For later weeks, use the current previews.