Spain vs Argentina

The final the tournament deserved: the two best sides, unbeaten through the knockouts, with opposite personalities. Spain have suffocated their way here - 1-0 over Portugal, 2-1 over Belgium, 2-0 over France in a semi-final masterclass. Argentina have brawled their way here - 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, scoring in waves and conceding in every knockout match.

The case for the tip

Something has to give, and history says it gives both ways. Argentina have scored in every match this tournament and conceded in every knockout game - their chaos travels. Spain’s control is real, but Argentina’s front line is a different class of threat from anything Spain have faced this summer. Both teams to score at 1.80 backs the one pattern neither side has broken in a month of football.

The alternative angle

If you believe in Spain’s control, Spain draw-no-bet protects against the coin-flip of late drama while keeping most of the price. The straight Spain win at 2.40 is fair, not generous - the market has this final priced honestly.

Verdict

Both teams to score at 1.80. Finals tighten, but these two have spent a month telling us exactly who they are. Believe them.